President William Ruto is scheduled to undertake his highly anticipated tour of the Mount Kenya region this week.
To hear the man Ruto says he had nothing to do with his impeachment, one can only conclude as far as the man and the people of Mt Kenya are concerned, Ruto is akin to persona non grata in the region – not just because he led his brigade to jettison former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua from office – but for “betraying the Agikuyu community”.
As the man puts it, the community can forgive almost anything but cannot forgive betrayal.
This is an interesting observation, which may not hold up when subject to any scrutiny. For one, betrayal is so intertwined with politics that it is impossible to imagine where it has not been present.
As we will soon find out, Ruto may not be that politically finished or damaged beyond repair as Gachagua and others may lead one to believe. ere are several points which lead to this conclusion: First, there is the power of incumbency.
Any sitting President wields not just enormous executive powers to dole both benefits and punishment as he chooses, he also has access to state resources to do anything he pleases to advance his political objectives, ill-advised and detrimental to the larger good for society as that may be.
You can count on the President to unleash regional and county commissioners as well as Members of Parliament and MCAs aligned to him from the region to whip up crowds – not on roadsides as is typically the case – but to troop to Sagana Lodge and pay homage with the message being “all is okay; [pick your favorite nickname] is here to stay and will be reelected mpende msipende (like it or not).
Second, to do this requires something many will say Mt Kenya can eff ectively deploy – and that is money.
The late President Daniel Moi used to brag that he could buy any votes he wanted in Parliament for 100 bob each. Moi was talking about the general electorate.
The new thing — well, not all that new as this catapulted to high gear during the late Mwai Kibaki’s presidency — which has only gotten progressively worse, is buying MP votes for ridiculous amounts, no different than Moi bragging to pay only Sh100 for a vote.
One can therefore imagine those trooping to Sagana Lodge will either have pockets padded before or after— and this is not something subject to any debate.
Keep in mind Ruto need not have masses showing up at the lodge or wherever else he may choose to safely make a stop; rather, the President and his planners merely need to show he has some support in the region and that is good enough to counter the narrative that he is politically fi nished and will be a walk-over, come 2027.
The third reason the power of incumbency will always tramp anything on its way, is inability of the opposition to respond in kind or otherwise.
Whatever Ruto does in Mt Kenya, it will accomplish his main political objective, and that is, to show the country and specifically the people of the region who have written him off, that he is no pushover and defeating him will take more than one region hating him.
Put another way, Ruto will be telling the region he is no Raila, who they hated and refused to vote for, to the man and woman—well, almost to the man and woman but in large numbers to deny him the presidency even as he was being rigged out elsewhere.
Ruto need not carry Mt Kenya en masse as he did in 2022 to avoid being denied a second term—a rare fit.
Rather, he just needs a respectable showing, more like Raila used to garner in the region with the difference being that Ruto can use that to ride to victory while Raila could not.
That being the case, those poised or intent to have Ruto as a one-term president have their work cut out for them.
