El Niño Alert: Kenya Prepares for Heavy Rains and Flood Threats
Kenya is preparing for a possible return of El Niño later this year, with meteorologists warning of both benefits and hazards as the season approaches.
The Kenya Meteorological Department’s latest outlook indicates that while conditions are expected to remain relatively stable during the first half of 2026, the likelihood of El Niño rises sharply from mid-year. By the October–December short rains season, the probability is projected at 58 to 61 percent.
El Niño is driven by warmer sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and can disrupt weather patterns worldwide. In East Africa, it often brings heavy rainfall. The department notes that increased precipitation could support agriculture and hydropower generation but also raises the risk of flooding in vulnerable areas.
Officials emphasise that these forecasts are probabilistic and depend on evolving ocean conditions, highlighting the need for preparedness across multiple sectors.
The outlook predicts differing impacts across the country. In wetter regions such as central and eastern Kenya, authorities are urged to strengthen flood defences, improve drainage systems, and expand disease monitoring to mitigate health risks.
In drier areas, measures such as water harvesting, planting drought-tolerant crops, and diversifying livelihoods are recommended to reduce vulnerability to climate shocks. The March–May long rains are expected to be near-average to above-average in the Rift Valley and highland regions but below-average along the coast, indicating uneven rainfall distribution.
In Nairobi, immediate flood risks are already being addressed. Governor Johnson Sakaja has ordered a major rehabilitation of Nairobi Dam after a multi-agency assessment found the structure under severe strain. Built in 1953 to manage floods along the Ngong and Mitumi rivers, the dam has suffered decades of neglect, with pollution, encroachment, and informal settlements increasing risks.
The rehabilitation plan includes clearing debris from the spillway, conducting geotechnical surveys to assess the dam’s integrity, and constructing a 30-metre protective barrier to prevent further encroachment. Governor Sakaja acknowledged that some residents would need to relocate but stressed that the measures are necessary to protect thousands living downstream.
The Water Resources Authority has issued evacuation notices for residents in Kibera, Nyayo Highrise, Dam Estate, Lang’ata, Nairobi West, and Madaraka, warning of imminent flood threats. Authorities are urging compliance as rehabilitation work begins.
